Global Deep Adjustment of Air Source Heat Pumps, Expected to See Recovery In 2025

Against the backdrop of accelerating global energy transition and carbon neutrality goals, the market development of air source heat pumps, as the core equipment for clean heating and hot water supply, has always been a driving force for the global HVAC industry. In 2024, due to the interweaving of multiple macro and micro factors, there was a phased decline; With the advancement of the industry's destocking cycle and the gradual clarification of the policy environment, signs of market recovery have begun to emerge in 2025.

Based on the latest research data from Industry Online, this article conducts a deep analysis of the market characteristics, regional performance, and future trends during this critical transformation period.

Global production and sales scale decline 

According to the "2024 Annual Research Report on the Global Air Source Heat Pump Industry" by Industry Online, the global air source heat pump market has experienced a significant decline in size. This is due to factors such as weak global economy, sluggish demand, and changes in subsidy policies and soaring electricity prices in some European countries. As a result, the global air source heat pump industry has undergone significant structural adjustments.

The production and sales scale have both declined significantly. In 2024, the total production of air source heat pump hot water and air to water heat pump heating products worldwide was 4.46 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 11.6%; The annual sales volume was approximately 4.25 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.9%.  

Significant differentiation in regional market performance 

Looking at different continents, North American policies drive growth, while Eurasia is dragged down by multiple factors.

North America: The air source heat pump market in North American countries such as the United States and Canada is rapidly expanding due to factors such as government subsidies for achieving carbon neutrality goals and the application of clean energy equipment.

Asia: Affected by high inventory in the heat pump industry, significant decline in China's export market, and insufficient domestic demand in some Asian countries, the production scale of air source heat pumps will decline by 7.4% and sales scale will decline by 0.7% in 2024.

Europe: In 2024, the environment for the heat pump industry in Europe will further deteriorate, with a significant decline in the production and sales scale of air source heat pumps. Most economies are experiencing economic downturns, political instability, extreme weather, soaring electricity prices, setbacks in the development of the construction industry, and changes in heat pump policies and support plans, which have become the main factors contributing to the decline. Although the overall operating rate of heat pump factories in Europe is low and production capacity is idle, countries are increasing investment in industrial construction, especially relying on imported core components, in order to improve the local heat pump industry chain and enhance the competitiveness of local heat pump products.

From a country by country perspective, the policy dividends of the United States and the United Kingdom are significant, while major markets such as China, Germany, and France have declined.

Industry Online data shows that in 2024, only the United States and the United Kingdom achieved an increase in production scale among the major producing countries of air source heat pumps worldwide, mainly due to strong policy subsidies from local governments, driving local demand growth.

The global sales market is mainly concentrated in China, Japan, France, Germany, the United States, Australia, and some other EU countries. Japan's main sales product is CO ₂ heat pump hot water, with a slight year-on-year increase; The Chinese market is affected by the downturn in the real estate industry, experiencing its first decline after years of continuous growth; The United States and the United Kingdom have benefited from strong policy drivers from local governments, resulting in rapid sales growth.

Increased concentration of top enterprises 

In 2024, the production scale of global air source heat pump brands will generally shrink. Looking at different factions, the production scale of Chinese brands has shrunk to below 2.5 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6%; European brands were affected by sluggish demand, resulting in a year-on-year decline of 32.2% in production volume; Despite steady growth in domestic demand, Japanese brands have experienced a year-on-year decline of over 10% due to the impact of weak demand in Europe on exports; American brands maintain growth with local policy support.

Due to the influence of the global external environment, the number of active brands in 2024 has also decreased, and the market penetration of TOP10 brands has increased. Currently, Haier, Midea, Gree, Daikin, and Panasonic occupy the leading global brand positions in air source heat pumps, in addition to Mitsubishi Electric NIBE、 More than 10 companies, including Xiderui and Feisman, form the mainstream brand camp. In addition, numerous companies from the fields of solar energy, boilers, electrical appliances, and other HVAC are actively expanding their air source heat pump business.

With the strengthening of clean energy policies in various countries, accelerated industry integration, and the concentration of resources towards technology leading enterprises, efficient and energy-saving products have become more competitive in the market.

Expected recovery in 2025

With the decline in energy costs, the gradual end of the destocking cycle in the industry, and the stabilization of political teams in various countries after the 2024 election year, the implementation of national policies will help promote the stable development of the heat pump industry. However, in 2025, there is still an economic downturn risk, and there may be insufficient demand growth momentum. It is expected that there will be a slight increase in global production and sales volume by 2025.

From a regional perspective, the Chinese real estate market in Asia is slowly recovering, and it is expected that the sales scale of air source heat pumps will turn positive and maintain stability by 2025, while Japan and other countries will continue to develop steadily; The European market is polarized, and some countries' policies are supporting the rapid development of the air source heat pump industry; Affected by the unpredictable risks of the Trump administration in the United States, the possibility of maintaining high-speed growth in the North American heat pump market has decreased, and it is expected to maintain a growth rate of 10%; In other continents such as Oceania, the sales scale of air source heat pumps is still relatively small. With the improvement of the external economic environment, it is expected to resume growth.