Air Source Heat Pump Market: Riding The Policy Wind, Entering The Fast Lane Of High-Quality Development

In the context of addressing global climate change and promoting energy structure transformation, clean heating and cooling technology has ushered in unprecedented development opportunities. Air Source Heat Pump (ASHP), with its outstanding advantages of efficient utilization of ambient air heat energy, significant energy conservation and emission reduction, stable and reliable operation, and wide application scenarios, is rapidly growing from a promising technological solution to the mainstream choice in the global HVAC and hot water supply market. In China, a series of strong national and local policy supports, like a strong east wind, have injected surging momentum into the take-off of the air source heat pump industry, driving the market into a golden period of rapid development.

Policy Dongfeng: Building a comprehensive support system and activating market potential. The Chinese government's support for the air source heat pump industry is not accidental, but based on the top-level design of the national energy security strategy, ecological civilization construction, and the "dual carbon" goals (peaking carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060). In recent years, policies at multiple levels and dimensions have been intensively introduced from the central to local levels, forming a strong driving force:

1. National strategic guidance and clear development direction

1) Driven by the "dual carbon" goal: One of the core paths to achieving carbon neutrality is the deep electrification and cleanliness of energy consumption. As a powerful tool for replacing fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) with electricity for heating and cooling, the strategic position of air source heat pumps has been repeatedly emphasized in the national energy transformation blueprint. The 14th Five Year Plan for Modern Energy System and the Action Plan for Peak Carbon Emissions by 2030, among other landmark documents, have clearly stated the need to vigorously develop renewable energy utilization technologies such as heat pumps.

2) Mandatory requirements for building energy efficiency: The new version of the "General Specification for Building Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Utilization" and other mandatory standards have significantly increased the energy efficiency requirements for new buildings, encouraging or mandating the use of renewable energy heating and cooling systems. Air source heat pumps have become a key technological option to meet new regulations and reduce carbon emissions from building operations.

2. Clean heating campaign, unleashing huge market space

1) The "coal to electricity" project in northern regions is the most direct and powerful policy engine driving the explosive growth of the air source heat pump market. In order to control air pollution and improve people's livelihoods, the country has launched large-scale winter clean heating renovation in key areas such as the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region and surrounding areas, as well as the Fenwei Plain, and has clearly identified air source heat pumps as one of the main technical routes for "coal to electricity" conversion. The central and local governments have invested huge subsidies, covering equipment procurement and partial installation costs, greatly reducing the initial investment threshold for users and stimulating market vitality. From pilot demonstration to comprehensive implementation, the "coal to electricity" project has brought a massive number of orders for household and small-scale centralized heating projects to heat pump enterprises.

2) The demand for clean heating in the south is increasing: With the improvement of living standards and the increase of extreme weather, the winter heating demand in traditional non centralized heating areas such as the Yangtze River Basin is becoming increasingly strong. Local governments are also actively exploring and promoting clean and decentralized heating methods such as air source heat pumps, and the pilot scope of relevant policy support and subsidies is gradually expanding.

3. Financial subsidies and tax incentives to reduce application costs

1) Purchase subsidy: In addition to the special subsidy for "coal to electricity", some provinces and cities provide direct financial subsidies or consumption vouchers for residents or units to purchase air source heat pump products that meet energy efficiency standards.

2) Operation subsidy: Some regions provide electricity price discounts or operation cost subsidies (such as off peak electricity price policies) to users who use air source heat pumps for heating, reducing their long-term usage costs and improving their economic efficiency.

3) Tax reduction: Enterprises that produce specialized equipment for energy conservation, water conservation, and environmental protection may enjoy income tax incentives; Eligible heat pump products may be included in the government procurement list of energy-saving products or enjoy value-added tax preferential policies.

4. Energy efficiency standards and green label certification guide industrial upgrading

1) The country continues to raise the energy efficiency admission threshold for air source heat pump products (such as the higher requirements for heat pump air conditioners in the new version of GB 21455 "Energy Efficiency Limits and Grades for Room Air Conditioners"), eliminate inefficient products, and force enterprises to innovate in technology.

2) China's energy efficiency labeling, green product certification and other systems help consumers identify high-efficiency and energy-saving products, guiding the market towards high-quality and high-efficiency development.

5. Various local policies bloom

Various provinces and cities have introduced more targeted promotion policies based on their own resource endowments, climate characteristics, and environmental pressures. For example, in areas with abundant renewable energy resources, encourage the complementary use of "air energy+" multiple energy sources; Key promotion of combined cooling and heating in hot summer and cold winter areas; Promote the use of heat pumps for process heating or waste heat recovery in the industrial sector.

Market response: Booming development and structural upgrading catalyzed by policies. Driven by strong policies, the Chinese air source heat pump market has shown astonishing growth momentum and positive structural changes

1. The market size continues to expand rapidly:

1) Industry data shows that the Chinese air source heat pump market (including domestic sales and exports) has maintained double-digit or even higher growth rates for several consecutive years. Even during periods of macroeconomic fluctuations, its growth resilience remains significant.

2) The retail market (household and small commercial) and the engineering market (large commercial, central heating, industrial and agricultural applications) are advancing simultaneously. Sub sectors such as household heating, central air conditioning (dual supply of heating and cooling), commercial hot water, swimming pool constant temperature, and industrial and agricultural drying are fully emerging.

2. The "coal to electricity" project has made significant contributions and has enormous potential in the aftermarket

1) The "coal to electricity" project in the north has created a huge installation volume in a short period of time, not only directly driving equipment sales, but also popularizing the concept of air source heat pumps in rural areas and cultivating user habits.

2) With the early installed equipment gradually entering the maintenance and update cycle, as well as the increasing penetration rate in non coal to electricity areas, the sustainable growth momentum in the post coal to electricity era remains strong.

3. Product and technology iteration acceleration:

1) Popularization of variable frequency technology: Variable frequency air source heat pumps have become the absolute mainstream in the market due to their excellent partial load energy efficiency and comfort.

2) Breakthrough in low-temperature performance: Equipped with jet enthalpy increasing technology and other ultra-low temperature heat pumps, the heating capacity remains strong in environments of -25 ℃ or even -30 ℃, effectively solving the application pain points in northern cold regions and expanding the geographical boundaries of the market.

3) The rise of dual supply/triple supply systems: an efficient solution for heating, cooling, and domestic hot water demand, which is highly favored in high-end residential and commercial projects due to its advantages of comfort, energy saving, and space saving.

4) Intelligence and the Internet of Things: Remote control, intelligent linkage, fault diagnosis, energy management and other functions have become standard features of products, improving user experience and operational efficiency.

5) Diversified application scenarios: From traditional household hot water and heating and cooling, it extends to broader fields such as industrial and agricultural production (such as drying, constant temperature breeding), commercial services (hotel hot water, swimming pool constant temperature dehumidification), regional energy stations, etc.

Opportunities and challenges coexist: The key to achieving high-quality development lies in the sustained release of policy dividends and rapid market growth. At the same time, the air source heat pump industry is also facing challenges and opportunities to develop towards higher quality and more sustainable directions.

Future outlook: Policy protection, innovation driven, and jointly building a green and low-carbon future. It is foreseeable that under the long-term guidance of the "dual carbon" goal, the strategic position of air source heat pumps as a key low-carbon technology will be further consolidated. Future policy support is expected to show the following trends:

1) Shift from "subsidy driven" to "long-term mechanism": The policy focus may gradually shift from initial installation subsidies to improving electricity pricing mechanisms (such as deepening peak and valley electricity prices, exploring heat pump exclusive electricity prices), connecting carbon trading markets, supporting green finance, and other long-term mechanism construction.

2) Emphasize both standard guidance and quality supervision: further improve energy efficiency, environmental protection, safety and other standards, strengthen market supervision and product inspections, and promote high-quality development of the industry.

3) Encourage technological innovation and application expansion: support key core technology breakthroughs (such as new environmentally friendly refrigerants, higher energy efficiency systems), intelligent applications, and demonstration and promotion in new scenarios (such as industrial waste heat recovery, data center cooling).

4) Strengthen international cooperation: align with international standards, promote technological exchanges, and support enterprises to "go global".

Taking advantage of the trend, the policy of going green is blowing vigorously, laying a high-speed development track for the air source heat pump market. From the spark of "coal to electricity" in the north, to the current nationwide clean and warm revolution; From a single household hot water to diversified commercial and industrial applications; From the main force in the domestic market to the globally shining "Made in China", the air source heat pump industry has achieved leapfrog development under the precise guidance of policies. Looking ahead to the future, with the continuous optimization of the policy system, breakthroughs in technological innovation, and the increasing maturity of the industrial chain, the air source heat pump market will seize the opportunity to play a more critical role in promoting clean and low-carbon energy transformation, helping the country achieve its "dual carbon" goals, and improving people's quality of life. It will unleash more powerful green momentum. This clean energy revolution, led by policies and responded by the market, is reshaping China's energy consumption map with unprecedented breadth and depth, injecting a continuous stream of green warmth into the construction of a beautiful China.